Monday, October 18, 2004

Predicting the Electoral College Results via Polling

A few interesting website have been incorporating the latest polling information to predict who will win the Presidency.

1). Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 - this is pretty interesting - it has Kerry leading at the moment but no clear winner (no one at 270 electoral college votes).
2). Los Angeles Times Interactive Electoral College Turnout - this site is neat because it lets you change the results in all 50 states to see how the race would turn out under different circumstances. You control the outcome! And then it plays the Presidental theme song or convocation that they play when the President is inaugurated when either Bush or Kerry's total reaches 270.

Of course, over dinner last night, a bunch of friends and myself were saying that all the polling is really bunk because they are not taking into account a). the surge in voter registration all over the country and b). the heavy use of cell phones as a person's single point of contact. None of these cell-phone only folks ever get included in polls, so how accurate can they be?